NUPL

This comprehensive indicator combines Market Value and Realized Value to provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
\[ \text{NUPL} =  \frac{{\text{Market Cap } – \text{Realized Cap}}}{{\text{Market Cap}}} \]
Market Value: Calculated by multiplying the current Bitcoin price by the total circulating coins.

Realized Value: Instead of using the current Bitcoin price, Realized Value considers the price of each Bitcoin at its last movement between wallets. By averaging these individual prices and multiplying by the total coins in circulation, it provides a unique perspective on value.

Using the Indicator for Bitcoin Price Prediction:

• Market Heatmap: Observing the ratio between market cap and profit-taking reveals market conditions. A rapid increase in market cap compared to profit-taking suggests overheating, often attributed to investor greed (depicted in the red band).
• Strategic Insight: Analyzing different percentages of Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss helps identify market stages. This is particularly valuable for long-term strategic investors looking to optimize their positions.