Bitcoin tends to move in a rough rhythm: about three years of advance followed by roughly one year of bear-market reset. The cycle is not a calendar — it is context. The same signal means different things depending on where you are in the rhythm.
Most of the gains and most of the danger cluster in the advance and euphoria phases. The bear reset is where the excess clears and the fuel for the next cycle is rebuilt. Knowing the phase keeps you from reading late-cycle euphoria as an early-cycle advance.
Attention is low, volatility is compressed, and leverage is thin. Price grinds sideways while patient capital builds positions quietly.
Low OI, neutral funding, and calm liquidations. Boredom is the signal — most of the crowd has stopped watching.
Price trends up with healthy participation. Rising OI and rising price can be genuine here — not yet a trap. Pullbacks reset positioning.
OI expands with price, funding turns positive but not extreme, negative funding on dips is a bullish reset, not fear.
Attention spikes, leverage crowds one side, and headlines feel obvious. This is where the same signals flip from healthy to fragile.
OI expansion becomes trap fuel, funding pushes above 0.0100%, Google Trends peaks, liquidation clusters stack above price.
Leverage flushes, capitulation clears the excess, and the crowd gives up. The reset rebuilds the fuel for the next advance.
Deep liquidations, OI collapse, funding swings negative on fear. Capitulation is exhaustion, not a permanent verdict.